Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction, Picks & Odds | 27 Sep 2025

College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee vs Mississippi State

Tennessee clash with Mississippi State in this NCAAF Week 5 matchup at Davis Wade Stadium, with kickoff scheduled for 04:15 on Sunday 28 September. Our betting preview features expert predictions, picks, the latest betting odds and H2H stats.

Side With Mississippi State Against The Spread

Our prediction is that Mississippi State will cover the line and prove to be competitive. It’s currently set at +7.5 against Tennessee and that makes plenty of appeal, with 1.91 available.

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Tennessee Overcame Mississippi State in Last H2H

Tennessee Volunteers previous game saw them claim a 56-24 home win over UAB Blazers at Neyland Stadium.

Mississippi State Bulldogs were winners for the fourth straight time in their last game. Landing a 38-10 home victory against Northern Illinois Huskies at Davis Wade Stadium.

Head-to-Head Statistics

These two teams last met at Neyland Stadium, with Tennessee claiming the win. Beating Mississippi State by a 33-14 scoreline.

Quarterbacks

Joey Aguilar

Blake Shapen

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Prediction & Picks

Unlock a complete betting breakdown for Tennessee vs Mississippi State, featuring our expert match prediction, expected final score, standout player prop picks and a ready-to-play bet builder.

Game Prediction

We’re confident that Mississippi State can push for a victory in this college football showdown and the +7.5 about them on the spread makes lots of appeal. Take 1.91 that they cover the line.

Our team of college football handicappers track current injuries closely. Combined with recent form, this helps us identify the best value odds. A data-led approach backed by key stats and the latest team news keeps our analysis sharp.

Key Tennessee vs Mississippi State stats:

• The +7.5 line has been covered by Mississippi State in 4 consecutive games.
• The -7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Tennessee in 7 of their last 10 games on the road.
• The -7.5 line hasn’t been covered by Tennessee in 13 of their last 19 games on the road.

Mississippi State +7.5 Probability

According to the best betting apps, our pick has a 52.4% chance of winning. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. It’s why we think it’s worth placing this college bet.

If you want a viable alternative to backing Mississippi State on the spread, then the Winning Margin lines could be up your street. Choose from a wide range of options.

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Best Bet

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Player Prop Picks

Correct Score Prediction

Tennessee 28 - 27 Mississippi State

Don’t pass up the opportunity to have a speculative bet on the Vols to land a 28-27 win. We don’t think that there will be too much between the teams.

Tennessee vs Mississippi State Odds

The odds and lines are updated on a frequent basis. You might therefore find that they are different to the ones listed for the betting predictions and bet builder tips.

Tennessee Favorites to Win According to the Books

The sportsbooks have Tennessee at 1.34 when it comes to the Moneyline betting, implying the market leaders are 75% likely to win this college game according to the latest odds. Mississippi State are the underdogs at 3.35 and they’re regarded as least likely to win.

The current spread is 7.5 and total points is 63.5. A Total wager is always available and can often provide value selections. If you’re going for Under 63.5, this outcome can be backed at 1.91.

Make sure to explore all angles before placing your college football bets. The top sportsbooks offer a wide range of game lines and team props and it’s all about finding a wager which matches your prediction of the matchup.

Fluff Bothwell Favorite to Score First TD

The First Touchdown Scorer favorite is Fluff Bothwell at 8.50. Similar odds can be found if you’re interested in this player to register the final TD.

Touchdown

Receiving Yards

Rushing Yards

Passing Yards

Micro Betting

Micro betting provides a rollercoaster ride for college football bettors. It can be great to enjoy the live lines, with the opportunity to wager on the Next Scoring Play. Watch the live action before deciding which way to go.

Mississippi State Keep Cashing In at Home

Mississippi State are riding three straight wins at Davis Wade Stadium. They own a 5-5 mark in their past 10 home games, averaging 34.00 points on offense and surrendering 27.40 on defense.

Tennessee have four wins and six losses in the last 10 road games, averaging 23.60 points on offense and surrendering 26.60 on defense.

Last 10 Games		W-L	P	PF	PA	O63.5	U63.5
Mississippi State Home Stats		5-5	61.40	34.00	27.40	3	7
Tennessee Away Stats		4-6	50.20	23.60	26.60	0	10

• W-L = Wins-Losses
• P = Avg. Points
• PF = Avg. Points For
• PA = Avg. Points Against
• O63.5 = Games Over 63.5 Points
• U63.5 = Games Under 63.5 Points

Last 5 & H2H

Latest regular season and playoff games stats.

Tennessee Volunteers Stats

Mississippi State Bulldogs Stats

Moneyline

• 7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
• 4 wins and 6 defeats in the last 10 games on the road

Moneyline

• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 games
• 5 wins and 5 defeats in the last 10 home games

Point Spread

• -7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 7 of the last 10 games
• -7.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the spread in 3 of the last 10 games on the road

Point Spread

• +7.5 Betting Line: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 games
• +7.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the spread in 5 of the last 10 home games

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 64.00 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals on the Road: An average of 50.20 pts in the previous 10 games on the road
• Over 63.5: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games
• Over 63.5 on the Road: Has not been covered in any of the previous 10 games on the road
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 40.10 pts and allowed 23.90 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 23.60 pts and allowed 26.60 pts in the last 10 games on the road

Total Points

• Game Totals: An average of 55.80 pts in the previous 10 games
• Game Totals at Home: An average of 61.40 pts in the previous 10 home games
• Over 63.5: Covered in 2 of the previous 10 games
• Over 63.5 at Home: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 home games
• Team Totals: Have scored an average of 30.10 pts and allowed 25.70 pts in the last 10 games
• Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 34.00 pts and allowed 27.40 pts in the last 10 home games

NCAAF Standings Select Season 2025/20262024/20252023/20242022/20232021/20222020/20212019/2020

Southeastern	W	L	PF	PA	N. Pts	Home	Away	Strk
Missouri	5	0	226	73	153	5-0	0-0	5W
Oklahoma	4	0	125	36	89	3-0	1-0	4W
Ole Miss	5	0	203	94	109	4-0	1-0	5W
Texas A&M	4	0	143	96	47	3-0	1-0	4W
Vanderbilt	5	0	245	86	159	3-0	2-0	5W
LSU	4	1	135	61	74	3-0	1-1	1L
Mississippi State	4	1	193	88	105	3-1	1-0	1L
Tennessee	4	1	255	145	110	3-1	1-0	2W
Alabama	3	1	152	66	86	2-0	1-1	3W
Georgia	3	1	138	78	60	2-1	1-0	1L
Texas	3	1	127	31	96	3-0	0-1	3W
Auburn	3	2	138	82	56	2-0	1-2	2L
South Carolina	3	2	124	94	30	3-1	0-1	1W
Kentucky	2	2	108	104	4	2-1	0-1	1L
Arkansas	2	3	187	150	37	2-1	0-2	3L
Florida	1	3	88	64	24	1-1	0-2	3L